Showing posts with label nuclear war. Show all posts
Showing posts with label nuclear war. Show all posts

Thursday, January 2, 2020

Why Did North Korea Develop Nuclear Weapons?

Scott Horton gives a very brief history of what happened (57m38s):
It was all George [W.] Bush's fault. [He] probably deliberately provoked them into doing that.
First, [the US] abnegated the Agreed Framework deal, then they announced a whole new round of sanctions, then they announced the Proliferation Security Initiative which said that we can seize all your boats on the high seas and do whatever we want with them [...] and then they announced the Nuclear Posture Review that said we just might attack you with nuclear weapons.

And only then did the North Koreans withdraw from their end of the Agreed Framework, announce they were withdrawing from the Non-Proliferation Treaty like in the deal it says you have to announce 6 months beforehand, and only then did they withdraw from the treaty, kick the IAEA out and start making nukes.

And i guess the thinking [in DC] - if you can call it thinking - was, don't worry, we'll be done in Baghdad and we’ll be ready to go to Pyongyang before they get their first nuke together, except that Oops instead we just essentially handed them an arsenal of nuclear weapons when they were perfectly happy within the Non-Proliferation Treaty as a threshold state under the Agreed Framework deal which America had never even lived up to our side of.

It just took Bush repudiating it and threatening them with an H-bomb first strike to make them withdraw from their end.

Tuesday, July 16, 2019

For How Long Can a World with Nuclear Weapons Avoid Nuclear Annihilation?

We live in a world with nuclear weapons. We know there are enough nukes to blow up the world many times over. And we know that the more time passes the more opportunities there will have been for nuclear war to break out.

But how much time will have to pass for this possibility of nuclear war to become a near certainty?

Let's make four assumptions:
  1. Only 10 governments have nuclear weapons at any given time.
  2. A government exists for four years on average.
  3. Only .1% (1 out of 1,000) of governments with nuclear weapons are stupid or suicidal/homicidal enough to accidentally or intentionally start a nuclear war.
  4. Nuclear war will escalate into nuclear annihilation (either directly through the blasts or as an indirect effect in the form of fallout and nuclear winter).

Saturday, February 4, 2017

28 Obama Foreign Policy Horrors (and three genuine achievements)

With Donald Trump in the White House it makes sense to worry about the direction US foreign policy is going in. But such understandable concerns about the future may lead us to forget just how destructive the previous president’s foreign policy has been.

The Obama administration bombed people in 8 countries, enforced crippling sanctions that caused widespread suffering in already poor regions, played an active role in 2 coups d'état, allied the US with neo-Nazis in Ukraine and Al Qaeda (Al Qaeda!) in Syria, and played dangerous war games with nuclear Russia.

Below is a non-exhaustive list of Obama's foreign policy horrors. Lest we forget.